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Second Quarter Forecast – Stratfor

17 aprile 2009

Former Soviet Union

  • Global trend: The global recession and the former Soviet Union
Annual FSU Map - Real One

Governments in the former Soviet Union are finding their energy sapped by the financial crisis, with Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia hit the hardest. Kiev and Astana have turned to the West and Russia asking for cash to bail them out. This will interplay deeply with Russian aims, particularly as political players within Ukraine throw blame at each other during the country’s upcoming presidential election season.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has only started to explain his decisions on countering the financial crisis, but it is clear that he has made some choices on which sectors and businesses to save, which to sacrifice and which to purposefully crash. The Kremlin should start implementing these plans in the second quarter. This should create panic among quite a few oligarchs and businessmen who will be clinging to their empires and money. This will also bring quite a bit of Kremlin clan infighting — though Putin made it abundantly clear during the government’s lockdown that dissent against his master plan would not be tolerated.

www.stratfor.com

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